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For the first time since 2004, the Ottawa Senators and Toronto Maple Leafs will meet in a playoff series. Ottawa hasn’t been to the postseason since 2017, when the Senators lost in the Eastern Conference Finals to the Pittsburgh Penguins. Since then, Ottawa’s roster was reborn through the drafting of future stars Brady Tkachuk, Jake Sanderson and Tim Stützle. Meanwhile, the Leafs have been one of the NHL’s most successful regular season teams, and one of its most reliably disappointing in the playoffs. This season, while Ottawa won all three games against Toronto, it’s the Leafs that are favoured. The history between these two franchises is set to receive a needed update.
There may not be a more beleaguered set of stars in the NHL than Toronto’s Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares. Each banal utterance made by any one of these four is dissected with microscopic care by the Toronto media – an enterprise that wrongly delights in the seriousness with which it covers the team. Despite Toronto’s lack of playoff success, Brendan Shanahan – the architect of a roster that’s repeatedly failed because it lacks the qualities that made him so successful as a player – has escaped sustained criticism. Attention and scrutiny are not the same thing.
Mitch Marner has been a focal point of fan grievances, but his playoff production has been on par with that of Auston Matthews, the team’s best player and among the most talented goal scorers in history. Last summer, Tavares ceded the Toronto captaincy to Matthews, formalizing his role as the team’s face. But throughout his career, Matthews has been far from a dominant force in the postseason, where there is less space and more friction, unreliable penalty enforcement and an overall style of play where everything becomes a lot harder. Players with modest regular season offensive production, like Sam Bennett, take on much greater worth by thriving in these conditions. Matthews has yet to do that.
In the Arizona native, there is an interesting juxtaposition with his American peer who leads the Senators. Brady Tkachuk has been the player Ottawa hoped for when he was drafted fourth overall in 2018: that assembly of belligerence, size and offensive production that’s strangely rare today (why are junior leagues not graduating more players like this?). Tkachuk has never appeared in the postseason, whose style seems perfectly suited to his game. This has been a source of worry for Senators fans, anxious that he might seek success elsewhere.
The closest Tkachuk has come to the playoffs occurred this February, when he appeared alongside Matthews for Team USA in the Four Nations Faceoff. He was among the most bloodthirsty of the American players, having fought (though neglecting to have thoroughly beaten) the smaller Bennett. Tkachuk’s aggression and powder keg emotionalism were among the standout qualities of this American team – and while people in Ottawa may have temporarily put aside their Senators fandom during the tournament, all have been salivating about the possibility of seeing this version of Brady in the playoffs.
Tkachuk has the capacity to tap into an emotional well that Matthews hasn’t yet accessed. But the ability of Tkachuk to fire up his team can become a hindrance whenever he gets carried away, and in this series, the Senators can’t afford to become undisciplined. Toronto’s first powerplay unit is a squad of all-stars. When given the opportunity, one of Matthews, Marner, Nylander or Tavares can bury you, and this series will get away from Ottawa the moment it loosens defensively.
While Marner and Matthews have both been with Toronto for nine years, there have been significant recent changes. Hard man and Stanley Cup winner Craig Berube is the coach. Players like Matthew Knies, Chris Tanev and Brandon Carlo are expected to provide those heavy, ornery qualities so important to long playoff runs. But teams are shaped by the personalities of their leaders, and Toronto's brightest lights have been notoriously short on exuberance during their various playoff failures. Leaf fandom – for those old enough to have seen him play – remains attached to memories of Wendel Clark. Those fans want someone who will skate through a wall. In this series, Tkachuk is Wendel’s closest approximation.
It would be reductive to position the matchup as a clash of personalities between the captains. Toronto has more offensive depth, while Ottawa may have a better third line. While the Senators have this series’ best defenseman in Jake Sanderson (a budding superstar and always amongst the most impressive players on the ice, regardless of his competition), the Leafs’ top six has slightly greater depth. In net, Ottawa’s Linus Ullmark could be a series hero, but in Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll, Toronto has two equally capable goalies.
In the old Battle of Ontario – that showdown which brought Senators fans so much misery four separate times – one common retelling is that Toronto’s heart, in the forms of Gary Roberts and Darcy Tucker, etc., outdid Ottawa’s talent. In this iteration, while the Leafs inarguably have more offensive punch, there’s a mixture of both qualities on either side. The winning team will be that which plays most like itself: for Toronto, its stars can’t be neutralized again, lest this version of the Leafs receive the dismantling it will deserve. For Ottawa, anything less than all-star level goaltending, chippy physical play and goals from its top three lines won’t be enough.
In recent history, Toronto has repeatedly failed in the playoffs, while Ottawa has been conspicuously absent from them. Starting tomorrow, it won’t be will versus skill, or heart versus hype, but which team won't allow itself to be dictated to.
Prediction:
The Senators’ defense struggles with Toronto’s forwards, but some outstanding goaltending from Linus Ullmark, coupled with hard play and timely offensive contributions from Ottawa’s second-tier forwards (Perron, Cozens, Pinto and Greig) will power a Senators upset. Ottawa in six.
